Barack Obama will be elected America’s president today. I say this not because of the many opinion polls that suggest he has the US presidential election in the bag, or because his ancestors’ village in Kenya is across from mine in Uganda (in a manner of speaking), and so objectivity has deserted me.
And I don’t fear that come November 4, the over-flogged “Bradley effect”, call it the white racist vote, will break out and see his rival the curmudgeonly John McCain wipe the floor with the Illinois senator.
About three years ago, I was in the US visiting with my brother and his lovely wife. One day we were driving from Washington to Maryland where they live, when he took a detour to show me the neighbourhoods where some of Washington’s moneyed and well-heeled class live.
As we drove through, I noticed quite a number of black people walking their dogs and cats, and pushing prams.
“The brothers and sisters,” I said, “seem to have made good. The first time I came to the US, I don’t remember seeing so many black people living in rich neighbourhoods as I do these days”.
Richard, who had just returned from New York on assignment for the company he was working for then, said he thought “black America is disappearing”.
He said he had just been on Wall Street, and that what struck him most was that far more black people were working in the big financial companies there than most people would imagine.
Then he said something that I kept thinking about long after. He said that he was intrigued that “there is no difference between a black and white Wall Street operator. They are all cut-throat,” he said, “and I think some of the brothers are hungrier and nastier than the white guys”.
What really existed, he argued, despite all the talk about racism was “rich black, Asian, Hispanic and white Americans on the one hand, and poor black, Asia, Hispanic, and white folks on the other”.
Two years later, when white musician Eminem became the biggest rapper in the US, a music that was born out of protest and the anger of poor black neighbourhoods in American cities, I thought Richard was right after all.
Black vote
When Obama threw his hat into the ring, I watched to see if he could make a naked run for the black vote. When he didn’t, I knew he had taken a big step towards winning the White House.
Reason? There are simply not enough black votes on their own to help anyone win a presidential election in America even if they got 100 per cent of it. It is not rocket science to figure that, but it takes a lot of courage to act on it as Obama did.
The Rev Jesse Jackson, a politician with far more street credibility than Obama, didn’t when he contested the Democratic Party nominations in 1984 and 1988.
Secondly, too many non-white people fear to be thought of as “being white”. If they are black, they tend to turn their backs on what, erroneously, are considered “white traits”. Thus, instead of meticulous organisation, they choose spontaneity.
Instead of the cool unemotional British upper lip (people like Presidents Kibaki and Paul Kagamme of Rwanda almost have it), they go for passion and exuberance.
They are not content with the crowds they are talking to nodding in agreement or crying in muted emotional outbreaks. They want wild cheers.
Flawless campaign
Obama didn’t walk that road. So when it became apparent that he had set up an awesome flawless campaign operation, and a lethal fundraising machine, I put my money on him.
When he slipped behind in opinion polls after McCain got a big bounce from the Republican party convention, Obama didn’t lose his cool.
Other politicians, like former President Bill Clinton, would go off to a club, wear dark glasses and blow the saxophone with a band. If Obama had done that, he would have fitted the stereotype of a go-happy black man.
He didn’t become excited and stayed the course. McCain, however, hasn’t. When he fell behind in opinion polls, he became a nasty table banger who frightens the children.
Can Obama lose? Mathematically, yes. But I would still ask: “Where the hell did that come from?”
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